周四美元全盘走低，美元指数(92.3360, 0.0140, 0.02%)下破93.00关口，有进一步下行的倾向。黄金连续两日大幅走高，就连此前疲弱的日元和瑞郎(0.9311, 0.0000, 0.00%)，兑美元也录得轻微涨幅。欧元(1.1871, -0.0001, -0.01%)反弹录得早晨之星，英镑(1.3811, -0.0011, -0.08%)上探近期低位整理区间上轨，商品货币也纷纷脱离近期回调低位。
周四公布的欧美制造业PMI均向好，提振全球经济复苏的乐观预期，打压美元避险需求。欧洲多国制造业3月增速普创纪录，其中，法国3月制造业PMI终值触及2000年9月以来最高59.3，好于初值58.8；德国3月制造业PMI终值持平于66.6，增长步伐创纪录；欧元区3月制造业PMI终值为62.5，为1997年6月以来最高。英国3月制造业PMI终值从初值57.9上修至58.9，创逾10年最高位。美国3月ISM制造业指数从60.8涨至64.7，创下1983年以来的新高，好于预期61.3。
另一方面，美元回落，也是市场赶在复活节假期前获利了结的结果，而美国就业数据不及预期，又加速了市场出清美元多头头寸。继小非农不及预期后，周四美国上周初请失业金人数反弹，录得71.9万人，高于市场预期的67.5万人和前值68.4万人。由于市场对本周五美国非农的预期极高，多个就业数据表现不佳，使得非农前景蒙阴。
今日复活节假期，市场交投意愿将明显下降，但晚间将迎来美国非农报告，市场预期美国3月非农新增就业人数高达64.3万，任何意外都可能使得清淡市况中市场剧烈波动。
技术面
欧元/美元
日图录得早晨之星，随机指标倾向上行，短期阻力关注10日均线。4小时图上破1.1760后进一步上探1.1780一线水平，整体反弹力度仍有限。小时图震荡上行，在1.1780一线随机指标倾向走低。日内谨慎操作，关注1.1780一线得失决定进一步方向。
支撑位 ： 1.1760 1.1715 1.1700
阻力位：1.1780 1.1800 1.1850
英镑/美元
日图在100日均寻得支持连续两日走高，随机指标倾向进一步上行，当前面临前高阻力1.3845。4小时图上行测试前高1.3845，关注该档得失。小时图短线多头略占主导，但随机指标熊背离。日内建议谨慎操作，关注1.3845一线表现决定进一步方向。
支撑位： 1.3810 1.3745 1.3715
阻力位： 1.3845 1.3875 1.3920
美元/日元
日图短期均线向上发散提供支持，但随机指标超买倾向修正。4小时图在110.95一线受阻后温和走低，力度有限，关注MA20支持。小时图高位横盘拉锯，关注110.40-110.85区间。日内建议谨慎操作，略倾向寻求区间高空。
支撑位： 110.40 110.25 110.00
阻力位： 110.85 111.00 111.20
黄金
日图在前低1677企稳录得曙光初现组合后又收实体大阳线，随机指标有进一步上行的倾向，仍看涨。4小时图震荡上行，进一步看1735阻力。小时图短期均线向上发散提供支持，仍有上行空间。日内建议谨慎操作，寻求1725一线做多看1735附近。
支撑位： 1725 1710 1700
阻力位：1735 1745 1755
白银
日图连续两日走高，随机指标倾向进一步上行，关注25.00整数关口阻力。4小时图均线金三角提供支持，短期上行动能猛烈。小时图震荡走高，关注MA200阻力转化的支持。日内建议谨慎操作，关注25.00一线表现决定进一步方向。
支撑位： 24.80 24.50 24.00
阻力位： 25.00 25.25 25.50
文章评论
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