美元利率上涨新解释:美国千禧一代进入“最佳举债年龄”?

2021年04月09日 2723点热度 0人点赞 303条评论

人民币(6.55850.00740.11%)交易与研究

自美联储在2008年全球金融危机期间启动量化宽松以来,投资者已习惯于预期利率接近于零。然而,美国投资机构Fundstrat最新报告称,随着千禧一代进入他们的“最佳举债年龄”,到2030年,利率可能会出现结构性上升。因此为利率跳升做好准备显得尤为重要。

美国投资机构Fundstrat全球顾问公司创始人Tom Lee4月7日(周三)在一份报告中表示, 30-50岁的年龄段是人们的收入峰值年龄,随着千禧一代(泛指1982至2000年间出生的人)进入这个年龄段,到2030年,利率可能出现几十年来的首次结构性上升。

一般而言,美国人一旦到了30岁甚至50岁,就会进入最佳举债年龄,因为他们通常会结婚、组建家庭、背负抵押贷款买房,年薪也会大幅增长。

Lee称,自2016年以来,处于“最佳举债年龄”的美国成年人的5年增长率转为正值,并继续上升。在20世纪70年代到80年代期间,该增长率也出现了类似的上升,且伴随着利率的大幅走高。他补充称,自上世纪90年代初开始,这一增长率实际上开始直线下降。

他补充称,这个群体的举债有助于推动经济增长,从而推高利率。

“事实上,达到最佳举债年龄的人数出现上升也表明CPI或通货膨胀率会上升。自1935年以来,这一群体的增长与CPI之间似乎存在着一种随意的关系,如果在今天的背景下是这样,那么通胀在未来10年应该会上升。”Lee说道。

为了为利率可能持续跳升做好准备,Lee建议投资者买入工业、能源和金融类股,这些类股与经济复苏密切相关。“如果利率料将走高,这对处于中心位置的股市是利好,” Lee表示。

美元利率上涨新解释:美国千禧一代进入“最佳举债年龄”?

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