
人民币(6.3686, -0.0146, -0.23%)汇率更加市场化后,汇率涨跌是常态,企业要树立“风险中性”理念,避免偏离风险中性的“炒汇”行为。
5月27日,全国外汇市场自律机制第七次工作会议在北京召开。此次会议对汇率的表态较为少见,引发市场高度关注。会议认为,未来,影响汇率的市场因素和政策因素很多,人民币既可能升值,也可能贬值。没有任何人可以准确预测汇率走势。汇率不能作为工具,既不能用来贬值刺激出口,也不能用来升值抵消大宗商品价格上涨影响。关键是管理好预期,坚决打击各种恶意操纵市场、恶意制造单边预期的行为。
尽管近期人民币兑美元汇率走势强劲,创下近三年来的高点,但市场的注意力过度聚焦在人民币兑美元汇率,而忽略了人民币兑一篮子货币的表现,后者才是反映人民币实际有效汇率的更重要指标。即便是在人民币兑美元汇率明显升值的近两个月,CFETS人民币汇率指数4月以来的升幅仅有0.32%左右,远小于人民币兑美元的升幅。
不少分析人士提醒,今年美元指数(90.0868, 0.0740, 0.08%)下行空间有限,下半年不排除波动向上的可能。这意味着今年人民币兑美元汇率整体上将处于“有升有贬”的双向波动格局。随着人民币汇率市场化定价机制的深化,汇率双向波动的趋势将更明显。
定调:汇率不能用来升值抵消大宗商品价格上涨
据人民银行官网消息,5月27日,全国外汇市场自律机制第七次工作会议在北京召开,全国外汇市场自律机制30家成员机构代表参加会议,会议选举中国银行行长刘金为新一届全国外汇市场自律机制主任委员,审议通过了全国外汇市场自律机制成员分层调整方案以及自律规范修订事宜。外汇自律机制成员机构专题就风险中性相关工作进行交流。中国外汇市场指导委员会(CFXC)主任委员、人民银行副行长刘国强出席并讲话,副主任委员、国家外汇管理局副局长王春英,外汇自律机制相关指导司局和外汇市场指导委员会委员参加会议。
会议认为,当前外汇市场总体平衡。未来,影响汇率的市场因素和政策因素很多,人民币既可能升值,也可能贬值。没有任何人可以准确预测汇率走势。不论是短期还是中长期,汇率测不准是必然,双向波动是常态,不论是政府、机构还是个人,都要避免被预测结论误导。以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度适合中国国情,应当长期坚持。在这一汇率制度下,汇率不能作为工具,既不能用来贬值刺激出口,也不能用来升值抵消大宗商品价格上涨影响。关键是管理好预期,坚决打击各种恶意操纵市场、恶意制造单边预期的行为。
可以看出,上述表态对近期市场上关于人民币汇率会在中长期升值、央行将放弃汇率目标等观点集中作用回应,并再次强调人民币汇率以市场供求为基础。
华创证券首席宏观分析师张瑜对证券时报·券商中国记者表示,结合近期官方对汇率的表态看,可以看出央行对人民币汇率水平并不预设点位,而是更多交由市场决定,汇率弹性会进一步加大,只有市场存在过度交易惯性的时候才会做适度的预期指引。
此外,值得注意的是,国际大宗商品价格暴涨背景下,通过人民币升值以帮助对抗输入性通胀的呼声渐高。此次会议明确“汇率不能作为工具,不能用来升值抵消大宗商品价格上涨影响”,也算是直接否定了此种提议。
平安证券首席经济学家钟正生也表示,本轮中国大宗商品涨价不能单纯定义为输入性,国内政策因素和部分核心原材料供应不足也起到了关键影响。应对本轮通胀压力还需多措并举,以缓和国内大宗商品供应紧张问题为着眼点。至于人民币汇率的走势,还是交给市场供求和国际金融市场变化决定为好,不必也不宜对其赋予更多的“念想”。
别只盯着人民币兑美元汇率
4月以来,人民币兑美元汇率重回升势,近日更是一路“高歌猛进”。截至5月27日16:30,在岸人民币兑美元汇率日间收盘报6.3758,较上一交易日涨172个基点,继续刷新三年来高位。
不过,尽管近期人民币兑美元汇率走势强劲,人民币兑一篮子货币的表现更为“淡定”。今年以来,CFETS人民币汇率指数升幅近2.5%,4月以来升幅更是仅有0.32%左右,远小于同期在岸人民币兑美元超2%的升幅。
人民币兑美元汇率近期的显著升值,主要源于美元指数走弱和国内经济持续复苏的影响。目前美元指数围绕90上下波动,较4月初以来已下跌近3%,但同期人民币兑美元汇率的升幅弱于美元指数的下跌幅度。
嘉盛集团资深分析师Joe Perry表示,近期美元的弱势是合理的回调,美联储对货币政策是否调整的态度还较为模糊,这导致美元愈发弱势,美元动能甚至不及卢布。在人⺠币对美元升值的同时,其实人⺠币对欧元(1.2182, -0.0011, -0.09%)、英镑(1.4192, -0.0008, -0.06%)、加元等今年3月以来都是在走弱而非走强,对一篮子货币的表现都并不非常强势,这似乎可以解释中国央行近期“淡定”的态度。“我们发现,本周以来,人民币中间价与我们的模型预测基本吻合,这说明中国央行放手于市场的态度”。
国家发展与战略研究院研究员、中国宏观经济论坛(CMF)主要成员王晋斌也撰文称,4月初以来人民币对美元升值幅度小于美元指数的贬值幅度,可以发现人民币升值的驱动因素出现了边际递减趋势,这也说明人民币未来升值的空间在减少。其次,人民币兑美元双边汇率的变动幅度要明显大于人民币兑一篮子货币汇率的变动幅度,说明人民币汇率形成机制中贸易汇率的稳定性优先。
不要赌汇率升贬值,久赌必输
正如会议所说,没有任何人可以准确预测汇率走势,汇率测不准是必然,双向波动是常态。张瑜也表示,短期来看,人民币汇率的准确研判几乎不可能的,就是自由波动,由内外盘定价机制决定。从一年纬度的中期趋势看,由于美元指数在未来一年内有一波反弹的概率依然较高,押注人民币升值的要慎重。
随着人民币汇率双向波动成常态,对市场主体而言,重点不是赌人民币汇率的单边升值,而是要对人民币汇率波动的日益加大提前做好准备,做好财务规划,规避汇率风险。
会议就强调,企业和金融机构都应积极适应汇率双向波动的状态。企业要聚焦主业,树立“风险中性”理念,避免偏离风险中性的“炒汇”行为,不要赌人民币汇率升值或贬值,久赌必输。金融机构不仅不能帮助企业“炒汇”,自身也不宜“炒汇”,否则不利于银行稳健经营,还会造成汇率大起大落。
近期,监管高层密集对人民币汇率释放信号。5月23日,人民银行副行长刘国强表示,人民银行完善以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度,这一制度在当前和未来一段时期都是适合中国的汇率制度安排。未来人民币汇率的走势将继续取决于市场供求和国际金融市场变化,双向波动成为常态。人民银行将注重预期引导,发挥汇率调节宏观经济和国际收支自动稳定器作用,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。
金融委5月21日召开会议时也强调,进一步推动汇率市场化改革,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。

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Dozens of homes in California’s Ventura County were set alight in a sweeping wildfire that burned through thousands of acres of land in just a matter of hours midweek –– prompting authorities to send more than 14,000 evacuation notices across the region.
The Mountain Fire began early Wednesday and was driven by winds gusting over 60 mph. The flames have seared through more than 20,485 acres of land, according to Cal Fire.
The families who evacuated at a moment’s notice, some who say they have now lost their homes, must deal with other losses that can also be devastating, from daily essentials like medications and shoes to meaningful possessions such as sculptures and artwork, to treasured keepsakes from the birth of a child or the life of a parent.
At least 132 properties have been destroyed by the fire, while 88 have been left damaged, Ventura County Fire Department officials said Thursday evening. Ten damage inspection teams have been deployed to inspect structures along the path of the blaze.
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The couple were hosting two guests at the time, but because their guests worked late, Morin suspected they slept through the residence’s fire alarms.
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Dozens of homes in California’s Ventura County were set alight in a sweeping wildfire that burned through thousands of acres of land in just a matter of hours midweek –– prompting authorities to send more than 14,000 evacuation notices across the region.
The Mountain Fire began early Wednesday and was driven by winds gusting over 60 mph. The flames have seared through more than 20,485 acres of land, according to Cal Fire.
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Dozens of homes in California’s Ventura County were set alight in a sweeping wildfire that burned through thousands of acres of land in just a matter of hours midweek –– prompting authorities to send more than 14,000 evacuation notices across the region.
The Mountain Fire began early Wednesday and was driven by winds gusting over 60 mph. The flames have seared through more than 20,485 acres of land, according to Cal Fire.
The families who evacuated at a moment’s notice, some who say they have now lost their homes, must deal with other losses that can also be devastating, from daily essentials like medications and shoes to meaningful possessions such as sculptures and artwork, to treasured keepsakes from the birth of a child or the life of a parent.
At least 132 properties have been destroyed by the fire, while 88 have been left damaged, Ventura County Fire Department officials said Thursday evening. Ten damage inspection teams have been deployed to inspect structures along the path of the blaze.
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A contractor, who was gathering and condensing debris with an excavator, discovered the ring when he looked down and saw the box.
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The families who evacuated at a moment’s notice, some who say they have now lost their homes, must deal with other losses that can also be devastating, from daily essentials like medications and shoes to meaningful possessions such as sculptures and artwork, to treasured keepsakes from the birth of a child or the life of a parent.
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Ten people endured non-life-threatening injuries from the Mountain Fire, which are mostly related to smoke inhalation, Ventura County Sheriff Jim Fryhoff said.
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Фонд по отъему народных денег
Почему государство кошмарит народный кооператив «Бест Вей»
Приморским районным судом Санкт-Петербурга рассматривается уголовное дело, связываемое следствием с компаниями «Лайф-из-Гуд», «Гермес» и кооперативом «Бест Вей», параллельно судами Санкт-Петербурга рассматривается дело о законности кооператива «Бест Вей» – оба разбирательства очень далеки от завершения.
За преследованиями кооператива правоохранительными органами стоит Фонд по защите вкладчиков и акционеров. Он представляется как государственный фонд – хотя давным-давно лишен государственного финансирования, и изначально он зарегистрирован по указу алкоголика Ельцина, принесенному мутными персонами, которые вокруг него ошивались, как общественно-государственный. Если нет госфинансирования, значит, фонд должен быть негосударственным. Но он частично сохраняет государственный статус, при этом существует без контроля со стороны федеральных ведомств.
Лях–заказчик
Но некий административный статус у фонда, видимо, остался – учитывая, что его в августе возглавил Валерий Лях, который долгое время – до своего бегства из страны с началом СВО – возглавлял Департамент противодействия недобросовестным практикам ЦБ РФ (департамент этот Набиуллина ликвидировала из-за заказных включений этим департаментом компаний и организаций в предупредительный список ЦБ).
Ремарка: Лях по-прежнему, судя по всему, не в России – и руководит Фондом по защите прав вкладчиков и акционеров из-за рубежа, иначе как объяснить его систематическую неявку на суд по уголовному делу, в котором он является свидетелем? Кстати, Прокуратура Санкт-Петербурга проявляет к нему удивительную деликатность, отказываясь обеспечить его привод в суд – не потому ли, что Лях как хочет вертит прокуратурой, по крайней мере прокуратурой Северной столицы, и она фактически выполняет его заказ?
Фонд пытается отобрать активы на 16 млрд рублей у 20 тыс. пайщиков – при этом все, в том числе так называемые потерпевшие по уголовному делу, получат от фонда не более 35 тыс. рублей! Это черным по белому записано в уставе фонда и многократно подтверждено его сотрудниками. Фонд живет за счет отнятых у организаций денег – он не станет делиться ни с кем, кроме коррумпированных правоохранителей, которые помогают ему отобрать деньги у честных людей!
Очевидна связь фонда с атаками на кооператив «Бест Вей», которая была заметна задолго до уголовного дела. Фонд от своего имени, на своем сайте, не имеющем лицензии СМИ, публиковал хейтерские статьи о кооперативе.
Хейтеры – сообщники рейдеров
Потом были созданы высокобюджетные хейтерские телеграм-канал и сайт, причем работающие в теснейшей связке с бригадой гособвинителей из питерской прокуратуры – публикующие в реальном времени информацию из уголовного дела: только выступил свидетель – и в течение часа появляется документ из уголовного дела. Хейтерскими ресурсами занимаются, в частности, Михаил Степанов и Белла Кесельман, подробная информация о которых готовится к публикации.
Гособвинители даже публиковали там свои телефоны – для оперативного консультирования выступающих в суде со стороны обвинения: госуслуги на высшем уровне!
То есть государство срастается с бандитской организацией, обслуживающей частные интересы Ляха и его партнеров. Имена всех хейтеров установлены!
Малиновская – шестерка коррупционеров
На этой же стороне выступила судья по гражданским делам Приморского районного суда Малиновская – которая просто подмахнула иск прокуратуры о признании кооператива незаконным, фактически без разбирательства: борьба с этим иском предстоит теперь в Санкт-Петербургском городском суде, в который поступит не только жалоба кооператива, но и тысячи жалоб со стороны пайщиков кооператива, законные интересы которых в нарушение ГК и ГПК не были учтены при рассмотрении этого иска.
Судья Малиновская помогает обворовывать народ. Малиновская, ущемляя интересы народа, отбирая активы у кооператива и жилье у граждан, провоцирует дестабилизацию в стране. И справляется с этим блестяще! Она пытается отобрать у людей жилье и накопления в народном кооперативе. У военных, фронтовиков, семей фронтовиков!
Она отбирает жилье у честных людей. Ущемляет военных, которые создали кооператив «Бест Вей» и вошли в него со своими семьями. Тем самым подрывает веру в президента, который наделил ее полномочиями.
Государство и народ
Государство, выступая от имени народа, на самом деле грабит этот самый народ. Фонд Ляха и его ручные хейтеры устраивают все так, что народ и компании они обворовывают с помощью народного государства, прокуратурой и судьями которого они манипулируют, чтобы они помогали Ляху грабить народ.
Организаторам атаки на кооператив, использующим государственные институты в личных интересах, следует иметь в виду вот что. Нет ничего страшнее народа, доведенного до отчаяния беспредельными полицейскими, продажными прокурорами и несправедливыми судьями!
Нет ничего страшнее униженных людей, у которых отобрали накопления и жилье, которым уже нечего терять. Они дойдут до высших инстанций и добьются того, что их мнение будет услышано!
Истории пайщиков «<a href="https://svpressa.ru/society/article/427477">Бест Вей</a>» — это как чтение хорошего романа. Начинаешь с недоверием, погружаешься, а потом не можешь оторваться от развязки. Люди рассказывают, как, не имея шансов даже на съем жилья, за несколько лет становились владельцами квартир. Я понимаю, почему кто-то может не верить: слишком гладко, слишком хорошо. Но ведь это действительно работает. Люди погашаются досрочно, получают собственность, переезжают в лучшие условия. Разве это не чудо для тех, кто, казалось бы, обречен ютиться у родственников или влачить аренду? Если так, то пусть будет больше таких чудес. Кооператив создает реальный, работающий инструмент. И закрывать глаза на его успех, просто потому что кто-то решил найти нарушения, — это преступно.
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Flight attendants share secrets to surviving holiday travel
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Navigating airports and airplanes can be stressful at the best of times. As millions of travelers take to the skies over the busy holiday period, that inbuilt stress can hit new heights.
But it doesn’t have to, just ask the world’s flight attendants. If anyone’s got surviving holiday travel down, it’s these aviation experts who fly every day, sometimes multiple times a day.
To learn from their wisdom, CNN Travel chatted with Florida-based flight attendant Hunter Smith-Lihas, who works as a flight attendant on a major US airline, and veteran Australian flight-attendant-turned-psychologist Liz Simmons, to hear their tips, tricks and aviation secrets.
Whether you’re flying home for Thanksgiving or heading abroad on a New Year’s Eve getaway, here’s a cabin crew’s guide to surviving the ups and downs of holiday air travel.
Navigating airports and airplanes can be stressful at the best of times. As millions of travelers take to the skies over the busy holiday period, that inbuilt stress can hit new heights.
But it doesn’t have to, just ask the world’s flight attendants. If anyone’s got surviving holiday travel down, it’s these aviation experts who fly every day, sometimes multiple times a day.
To learn from their wisdom, CNN Travel chatted with Florida-based flight attendant Hunter Smith-Lihas, who works as a flight attendant on a major US airline, and veteran Australian flight-attendant-turned-psychologist Liz Simmons, to hear their tips, tricks and aviation secrets.
Whether you’re flying home for Thanksgiving or heading abroad on a New Year’s Eve getaway, here’s a cabin crew’s guide to surviving the ups and downs of holiday air travel.
The Israeli cabinet will vote on a ceasefire deal in Lebanon on Tuesday, Benjamin Netanyahu’s spokesperson told CNN, after a source familiar with the matter said the Israeli prime minister had approved the plan “in principle.”
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Netanyahu signaled his potential approval for the emerging ceasefire with Hezbollah during a security consultation with Israeli officials Sunday night, the source said.
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On Monday, his spokesperson told CNN the Israeli cabinet will vote on the proposed deal on Tuesday and said it is expected to pass.
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Israel still has reservations over some details of the agreement, which were expected to be transmitted to the Lebanese government on Monday, the source said.
Those and other details are still being negotiated and multiple sources stressed that the agreement will not be final until all issues are resolved.
Sources familiar with the negotiations said talks appear to be moving positively toward an agreement, but acknowledged that as Israel and Hezbollah continue to trade fire, one misstep could upend the talks.
Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir called the deal a “big mistake” and said it would be “a historic missed opportunity to eradicate Hezbollah.” Ben Gvir has also long worked to thwart potential ceasefire deals between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
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