美债收益率上行对我国基本面和资本市场影响有限

2021年05月20日 7382点热度 0人点赞 1,481条评论

美债收益率上行对我国基本面和资本市场影响有限

5月17日,美国财政部发布了3月国际资本流动报告(Treasury International Capital,TIC),报告显示,3月外国央行投资者减持了约697亿美元美债。具体来讲,除卢森堡小幅增持7亿美元外,美国国债的其他前十大外国持有者均在3月减持了美债,其中,持有美国国债最多的日本连续2个月减持,3月减持177亿美元美债至1.24万亿美元;排名第二的中国则结束了连续4个月的增持势头,减持38亿美元美债至1.1万亿美元。尽管如此,日本和中国分别持有的美债数量仍然大于排在三至五位的英国、爱尔兰以及卢森堡持有美债数量的总和。

多国减持美国国债的原因主要有担忧美元走弱或致美元资产贬值、担忧财政货币刺激引致通胀上行降低美债实际收益率、规避美联储收紧风险以及防范可能的债务危机等原因。

首先,担忧美元走弱或致美元资产贬值。疫情以来,美联储实施极度宽松的货币政策,甚至推出史无前例的无限量化宽松政策,当前美联储依然保持以每个月不低于800亿美元的速度购买国债、以每个月不低于400亿美元的速度购买MBS,为实现量化宽松政策承诺的购债规模,美联储需要大幅增加货币发行,大量的货币发行在一定程度上导致美元走弱,由此导致各国持有的美元资产价值被稀释。2020年3月以来,美元指数(90.1430-0.0309-0.03%)一路下行,从高点102下行至90左右。而美债作为各国央行持有的主要美元资产,其价值也将相对下降,导致各国对美国的债务被稀释。为防止本国对美国的债务进一步被稀释,债权国家可能选择减持美国国债。当然,美债价值还取决于美债和美元的相对变化。

其次,担忧财政货币刺激引致通胀上行降低美债实际收益率。与前述美联储大量增发货币以及实施无限量化宽松政策相伴随的是美国财政赤字规模激增以及通胀快速上行。据美国财政部最新数据,2021财年前7个月美国联邦预算赤字扩大至创纪录的1.9万亿美元,远高于去年同期的1.5万亿美元,4月一个月就出现了2255.79亿美元的巨额赤字。在货币宽松和财政赤字的刺激下,美国通货膨胀率快速上行,据美国劳工部最新数据,美国4月未季调CPI同比升4.2%,增速创2008年9月以来新高;未季调核心CPI同比升3%,追平1996年1月的增幅;季调后CPI环比升0.8%,追平2009年6月的增幅。快速上行的赤字规模和通胀水平导致投资美债的风险越来越大,持有美债可能使投资者面临长期实际负利率,这将增强市场抛售美债的意愿。

再次,规避美联储收紧风险。4月通胀数据飙升,市场通胀预期持续走高,非农就业数据公布后降温的加息预期再次升温。近期,美国5年期盈亏平衡通胀率和10年期盈亏平衡通胀率持续走高,5年期盈亏平衡通胀率于5月12日升破2.8%,为2005年以来最高水平,尽管美联储反复强调通胀只是暂时的,但是快速大幅上行的盈亏平衡通胀率代表市场通胀预期不断上行,市场对于通胀压力带来的不确定性表现出担忧。美国货币市场认为美联储2022年12月加息25个基点的概率从88%升至100%,加息预期再度升温。一旦美联储开始退出宽松政策,减少购债规模,将导致美债下跌,缩减外国投资者持有美债的价值。不过同样,美债价值还取决于美元和美债的相对变化。

最后,防范可能的债务危机。美国债务规模近年来快速扩张,当前美国债务上限是2019年3月确定的21.99万亿美元,而当前债务规模已达到28.17万亿美元,超出美国债务上限。尽管依靠美元体系,当前美国并未出现过美债违约的情况,但是当债务规模超过美国债务上限而国会未批准提限时,也曾出现评估机构下调美国主权评级的情况,2011 年 8 月债务上限危机时,标普公司将美国主权评级从最高的 AAA 降至 AA+。历史上,布雷顿森林体系的崩溃其根本原因在于特里芬难题下,美国违约停止美元兑换黄金。因此,并不能排除面对庞大的债务以及与日俱增的付息成本,美国难以继续借新还旧,进而选择违约的可能。因此,多国抛售美国国债或也有防范债务危机的考虑。

多国减持美国国债的影响主要表现在两个方面:第一是可能导致美国经济走弱,进而影响其他国家出口;第二是将引发全球风险资产重新定价。

首先,一方面,作为全球最大的债务国,美国的经济发展在很大程度上依赖于债务支持,如果多国选择抛售美债,那么美国继续发行债券和筹集资金的能力将会大打折扣,这将对美国经济发展产生影响。另一方面,当今世界仍是一体化的世界,在国际贸易中,美国本身拥有巨大规模的贸易逆差,一旦其经济走弱,市场需求下降,那么对于其他国家的出口也将产生一定的影响。此外,美债被抛售也大概率伴随美元走弱,美元走弱将导致其他国家货币的相对升值,同样不利于其他国家的出口。

其次,多国减持美国国债的直接影响是美债价格下跌而美债收益率上升,由于美国国债收益率是全球风险资产定价的锚,因此全球资产价格将产生较大波动。具体而言,可能造成美股承压,尤其是高估值板块可能下行;实际利率的上升还会导致黄金等贵金属价格下跌。对于我国而言,当前中美利差仍在150bps左右的安全区间,美债收益率上行对我国基本面和资本市场影响有限。

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Не было представлено конкретных доказательств того, что права пайщиков были нарушены. Напротив, пайщики активно участвуют в деятельности кооператива и получают от этого выгоду. Принципы создания и деятельности потребительского кооператива Кооператив функционирует на принципах равноправия и демократического участия. Кооператив регулярно предоставляет отчеты о своей деятельности, финансовом состоянии и планах развития. Это обеспечивает прозрачность и подотчетность перед пайщиками. Отсутствие конкретных нарушений В решении суда отсутствуют конкретные примеры или факты, подтверждающие несоответствие деятельности кооператива законодательству или нарушение прав пайщиков. Без представления конкретных доказательств сложно согласиться с выводами суда о несоответствии деятельности кооператива. Поддержка со стороны общественных организаций Представители ветеранских, военных и других общественных организаций выразили поддержку кооперативу, отмечая его важность для своих членов. Кооператив играет значимую роль в обществе, способствуя улучшению социально-экономического положения своих пайщиков. Учитывая представленные аргументы, решение суда о несоответствии деятельности кооператива интересам пайщиков и принципам потребительского кооператива представляется необоснованным. Отсутствие конкретных доказательств нарушений, массовая поддержка пайщиков и соответствие деятельности кооператива законодательству указывают на необходимость пересмотра данного решения. Складывается впечатление, что судья поддерживает прокурорских оборотней в погонах, поддерживает заказные дела, тем самым подрывая доверие к действующей власти и подставляет Презедента. Шокирующие факты и обвинения в адрес судьи Отказ в проведении независимой экспертизы и игнорирование защиты По полученным материалам, судья Малиновская безосновательно отклонила ходатайство адвокатов о проведении дополнительной независимой экспертизы кооператива. Защита настаивала на необходимости такой экспертизы для объективного установления истины. Отказ судьи вызвал подозрения в предвзятости, связи с бандитами в погонах и поставил под сомнение справедливость судебного разбирательства, что в конечном итоге может привести к разграблению бизнеса и обворовыванию пайщиков коопертива. Игнорирование аргументов защиты Адвокаты заявляют, что судья Малиновская грубо проигнорировала ключевые аргументы и доказательства, представленные защитой. Свидетельские показания и важные факты были оставлены без внимания, что вызывает серьезные вопросы о беспристрастности суда и намекает на возможные нарушения как минимум судебной этики. Безосновательная поддержка обвинения Сообщается, что судья Малиновская слепо встала на сторону обвинения, опираясь на доводы прокурора, которые, по мнению защиты, содержали серьезные ошибки и не были подкреплены доказательствами. Это приводит к выводу о возможной несправедливости и необъективности судебного процесса. Взрыв общественного негодования и массовые протесты Решения судьи Малиновской стали катализатором для массового недовольства по всей стране. Тысячи пайщиков и обычных граждан выразили свое возмущение, направив жалобы в городской суд Санкт-Петербурга требуя пересмотра скандальных решений. Общественные организации и представители бизнес-сообщества бьют тревогу, предупреждая о разрушительных последствиях для доверия к судебной системе. Обвинения в препятствовании правосудию Судью обвиняют в умышленном препятствовании правосудию и поддержке сомнительных дел. Звучат утверждения о том, что она действует в интересах бандитов в погонах, что вызывает недоверие и негативную реакцию со стороны общественности. Многие считают, что её действия могут служить уроком для других судей, демонстрируя необходимость соблюдения принципов справедливости и законности. Последствия для социальной стабильности Волна негодования, вызванная решениями судьи Малиновской, может иметь серьёзные последствия для социальной стабильности. Общественность опасается, что такие действия могут подорвать доверие к судебной системе и спровоцировать дальнейшие протесты. Бизнес-сообщество предупреждает о возможном ухудшении инвестиционного климата и негативном влиянии на экономическое развитие страны. Анализ отзывов в интернет В ходе изучения общественного мнения о деятельности судьи Малиновской Анны Гелиевны были выявлены ряд критических отзывов, выражающих обеспокоенность по поводу ее профессиональной деятельности по другим делам, которые она рассматривала. Ниже представлены основные моменты, отмеченные в отрицательных отзывах граждан, столкнувшихся с ее работой: 1. 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Авторы считают, что такие решения противоречат нормам действующего законодательства и принципам справедливости. - Нарушение процессуальных сроков: Есть упоминания о задержках в выдаче копий судебных решений и несоблюдении установленных законом сроков рассмотрения дел. 3. Влияние на доверие к судебной системе - Снижение доверия граждан: Критические отзывы отражают обеспокоенность тем, что подобные действия могут подрывать доверие общества к судебной системе и институтам власти в целом. - Призывы к проверке профессиональной деятельности: Некоторые граждане выражают необходимость обращения в компетентные органы для проведения проверки профессиональной деятельности судьи Малиновской и оценки ее соответствия занимаемой должности. 4. 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    2024年11月14日
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    2024年11月15日
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    The coffee chains have big ambitions beyond Dearborn. Qahwah House hopes to open another 20 to 30 locations in the next year, spanning across 12 states and Canada, Alhasbani said. They are also licensed out, but Alhasbani says he sets a high standard before agreeing to let anyone open a shop.

    “We have too many people that come (asking me) they want to open. I have more than 10 different requests a day just to open this kind of business,” he said. “We don’t give anyone license until we make sure the person has the love for the brand and his mind and his heart in the Qahwah House.”
    Another authentic Yemeni coffee chain, Haraz, also sees crowds of people throughout the day and night. They opened their first location in New York City last week — less than half a mile away from Qahwah House’s downtown Manhattan shop — and the franchisees plan to grow.

    2024年11月15日
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    2024年11月18日
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    It’s widely known as Japan’s eyeglasses capital – and for good reason. Sabae produces over 90% of the frames manufactured in the country, according to the local government. Signs and objects shaped like eyeglasses can be found on city streets, and there’s even a museum and festival devoted to spectacles.
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    Sabae, located on Japan’s main Honshu island near the city of Fukui, has been producing quality eyewear for more than a century.

    It all started in 1905, when a local government official invited skilled eyeglasses artisans to come to the city to teach their craft, an attempt to create new opportunities for local farmers.

    The move paid off. Today, Sabae has over 100 companies that collaborate to make pairs of glasses.

    Though these studios use cutting-edge machinery to produce new frames made of metal and acetate, most stages still require the skilled hands and trained eyes of Sabae’s master artisans.

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    2024年11月18日
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    Terrie Morin, 60, and her husband, Dave, were at the barber shop when they heard about a raging wildfire making headway toward their Camarillo home on Wednesday morning.

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    The Mountain Fire began early Wednesday and was driven by winds gusting over 60 mph. The flames have seared through more than 20,485 acres of land, according to Cal Fire.

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    At least 132 properties have been destroyed by the fire, while 88 have been left damaged, Ventura County Fire Department officials said Thursday evening. Ten damage inspection teams have been deployed to inspect structures along the path of the blaze.

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    2024年11月18日
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    Ten minutes later, Dave noticed sparks in their backyard. The temperature was also picking up.

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    Dozens of homes in California’s Ventura County were set alight in a sweeping wildfire that burned through thousands of acres of land in just a matter of hours midweek –– prompting authorities to send more than 14,000 evacuation notices across the region.

    The Mountain Fire began early Wednesday and was driven by winds gusting over 60 mph. The flames have seared through more than 20,485 acres of land, according to Cal Fire.

    The families who evacuated at a moment’s notice, some who say they have now lost their homes, must deal with other losses that can also be devastating, from daily essentials like medications and shoes to meaningful possessions such as sculptures and artwork, to treasured keepsakes from the birth of a child or the life of a parent.

    At least 132 properties have been destroyed by the fire, while 88 have been left damaged, Ventura County Fire Department officials said Thursday evening. Ten damage inspection teams have been deployed to inspect structures along the path of the blaze.

    Ten people endured non-life-threatening injuries from the Mountain Fire, which are mostly related to smoke inhalation, Ventura County Sheriff Jim Fryhoff said.

    2024年11月18日
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    How a drab Soviet metropolis became Central Asia’s capital of cool
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    Several cities around the globe have reinvented themselves in recent years, but none more successfully than Almaty.

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    Along the way, the city has developed one of the world’s most beautiful metro systems, grown into a thriving banking and finance center, complemented its vintage bazaars with luxury boutiques and modern shopping malls and reshaped its traditional gastronomy into a nouvelle cuisine that’s drawing raves from foodies around the world.

    Almaty is also evolving into the cultural and artistic hub of Central Asia. It’s already got several world-class museums (including a “secret” underground collection that doesn’t even have a name) and a dazzling new cultural center slated to open early next year.

    “It’s an incredibly livable city,” says long-time American resident Dennis Keen, a historic preservation advocate and founder of Walking Almaty.

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    Keen adds that whenever he tells someone back home that he lives in Kazakhstan, “Borat” inevitably comes up. The movie’s title character doesn’t paint a very flattering portrait of the Central Asian nation. But nowadays one is tempted to think that if Borat visited Almaty now, he would say, “Very nice!”

    2024年11月18日
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    ‘We barely made it out’: Californians desperately flee their homes amid raging wildfires
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    Terrie Morin, 60, and her husband, Dave, were at the barber shop when they heard about a raging wildfire making headway toward their Camarillo home on Wednesday morning.

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    Ten minutes later, Dave noticed sparks in their backyard. The temperature was also picking up.

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    Dozens of homes in California’s Ventura County were set alight in a sweeping wildfire that burned through thousands of acres of land in just a matter of hours midweek –– prompting authorities to send more than 14,000 evacuation notices across the region.

    The Mountain Fire began early Wednesday and was driven by winds gusting over 60 mph. The flames have seared through more than 20,485 acres of land, according to Cal Fire.

    The families who evacuated at a moment’s notice, some who say they have now lost their homes, must deal with other losses that can also be devastating, from daily essentials like medications and shoes to meaningful possessions such as sculptures and artwork, to treasured keepsakes from the birth of a child or the life of a parent.

    At least 132 properties have been destroyed by the fire, while 88 have been left damaged, Ventura County Fire Department officials said Thursday evening. Ten damage inspection teams have been deployed to inspect structures along the path of the blaze.

    Ten people endured non-life-threatening injuries from the Mountain Fire, which are mostly related to smoke inhalation, Ventura County Sheriff Jim Fryhoff said.

    2024年11月18日
  • Richardvom

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    Scattered across Florida’s hurricane-ravaged communities are piles of debris, remnants of what were once homes. Cherished memories — photo albums, family heirlooms, and tokens of love — swallowed by floodwaters and carried miles away, are now reduced to mere fragments and discarded amid the wreckage.

    But in one of these piles of lost memories, a small, inconspicuous velvet black box was discovered with a ring and a note that read: “I was 18 when my parents gave it to me.”
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    Now, Joe Kovach, the engineer managing one of the debris sites in Tarpon Springs, Florida, where the box was found, is searching for its owner.

    “Everyone has been basically dumping their entire lives onto the curb after the storm when everything flooded. My own boss’ house had 30 inches (of water) in it, and I saw his face and just how devastating it can be for everyone,” Kovach, an engineer with Pinellas County Public Works, told CNN.

    “A lot of people in the community were really affected by these two storms, if there’s just a little bit I can do to give back, then that’s perfect.”

    A contractor, who was gathering and condensing debris with an excavator, discovered the ring when he looked down and saw the box.

    “This was a needle in a haystack for sure. For something like that to survive all that when everything else was so wet and saturated, that was kind of incredible,” Kovach said.
    Although the ring was found after Hurricane Milton, Kovach is sure the treasure was initially lost amid the ruins of Hurricane Helene, based on the pile of debris it came from, which Pinellas County Public Works tracks. It is likely the owner of the ring is from Crystal Beach, Ozona, or Palm Harbor, Kovach said.

    On Tuesday, after the contractor informed him about the ring, Kovach posted a photo of the box and the note on several local community Facebook pages, asking if it belonged to anyone. He did not include a photo or description of the ring to ensure it is returned to the rightful owner who can accurately describe it. On the inside lid of the box is a gold engraving with the jewelry brand, “The Danbury Mint.”

    2024年11月18日
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    ‘We barely made it out’: Californians desperately flee their homes amid raging wildfires
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    Terrie Morin, 60, and her husband, Dave, were at the barber shop when they heard about a raging wildfire making headway toward their Camarillo home on Wednesday morning.

    The couple were hosting two guests at the time, but because their guests worked late, Morin suspected they slept through the residence’s fire alarms.

    “I run in the house, and I’m banging on the door, and they did not hear me. They were knocked out,” Morin told CNN. “Get the dog. Get out of here. You don’t have time, just get out!” she recalled telling them.
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    Ten minutes later, Dave noticed sparks in their backyard. The temperature was also picking up.

    “It was hot. It was so hot,” Morin recalled.

    Dozens of homes in California’s Ventura County were set alight in a sweeping wildfire that burned through thousands of acres of land in just a matter of hours midweek –– prompting authorities to send more than 14,000 evacuation notices across the region.

    The Mountain Fire began early Wednesday and was driven by winds gusting over 60 mph. The flames have seared through more than 20,485 acres of land, according to Cal Fire.

    The families who evacuated at a moment’s notice, some who say they have now lost their homes, must deal with other losses that can also be devastating, from daily essentials like medications and shoes to meaningful possessions such as sculptures and artwork, to treasured keepsakes from the birth of a child or the life of a parent.

    At least 132 properties have been destroyed by the fire, while 88 have been left damaged, Ventura County Fire Department officials said Thursday evening. Ten damage inspection teams have been deployed to inspect structures along the path of the blaze.

    Ten people endured non-life-threatening injuries from the Mountain Fire, which are mostly related to smoke inhalation, Ventura County Sheriff Jim Fryhoff said.

    2024年11月18日
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    Unlock the Power of Eigenlayer
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    2024年11月19日
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    Bilkuin Jimi Salih doesn’t remember how old he was when he learned to dive, only, that all the men in his family can do it.

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    “One of our specialties is that, because we live on the sea and we’re always in the sea, we can dive in the water for a long time,” says Salih, via a translator. “We learn by observing, and from there, we develop our own technique.”

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  • Jamestum

    Фонд по отъему народных денег

    Почему государство кошмарит народный кооператив «Бест Вей»

    Приморским районным судом Санкт-Петербурга рассматривается уголовное дело, связываемое следствием с компаниями «Лайф-из-Гуд», «Гермес» и кооперативом «Бест Вей», параллельно судами Санкт-Петербурга рассматривается дело о законности кооператива «Бест Вей» – оба разбирательства очень далеки от завершения.

    За преследованиями кооператива правоохранительными органами стоит Фонд по защите вкладчиков и акционеров. Он представляется как государственный фонд – хотя давным-давно лишен государственного финансирования, и изначально он зарегистрирован по указу алкоголика Ельцина, принесенному мутными персонами, которые вокруг него ошивались, как общественно-государственный. Если нет госфинансирования, значит, фонд должен быть негосударственным. Но он частично сохраняет государственный статус, при этом существует без контроля со стороны федеральных ведомств.

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    Но некий административный статус у фонда, видимо, остался – учитывая, что его в августе возглавил Валерий Лях, который долгое время – до своего бегства из страны с началом СВО – возглавлял Департамент противодействия недобросовестным практикам ЦБ РФ (департамент этот Набиуллина ликвидировала из-за заказных включений этим департаментом компаний и организаций в предупредительный список ЦБ).

    Ремарка: Лях по-прежнему, судя по всему, не в России – и руководит Фондом по защите прав вкладчиков и акционеров из-за рубежа, иначе как объяснить его систематическую неявку на суд по уголовному делу, в котором он является свидетелем? Кстати, Прокуратура Санкт-Петербурга проявляет к нему удивительную деликатность, отказываясь обеспечить его привод в суд – не потому ли, что Лях как хочет вертит прокуратурой, по крайней мере прокуратурой Северной столицы, и она фактически выполняет его заказ?

    Фонд пытается отобрать активы на 16 млрд рублей у 20 тыс. пайщиков – при этом все, в том числе так называемые потерпевшие по уголовному делу, получат от фонда не более 35 тыс. рублей! Это черным по белому записано в уставе фонда и многократно подтверждено его сотрудниками. Фонд живет за счет отнятых у организаций денег – он не станет делиться ни с кем, кроме коррумпированных правоохранителей, которые помогают ему отобрать деньги у честных людей!

    Очевидна связь фонда с атаками на кооператив «Бест Вей», которая была заметна задолго до уголовного дела. Фонд от своего имени, на своем сайте, не имеющем лицензии СМИ, публиковал хейтерские статьи о кооперативе.

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    Потом были созданы высокобюджетные хейтерские телеграм-канал и сайт, причем работающие в теснейшей связке с бригадой гособвинителей из питерской прокуратуры – публикующие в реальном времени информацию из уголовного дела: только выступил свидетель – и в течение часа появляется документ из уголовного дела. Хейтерскими ресурсами занимаются, в частности, Михаил Степанов и Белла Кесельман, подробная информация о которых готовится к публикации.

    Гособвинители даже публиковали там свои телефоны – для оперативного консультирования выступающих в суде со стороны обвинения: госуслуги на высшем уровне!

    То есть государство срастается с бандитской организацией, обслуживающей частные интересы Ляха и его партнеров. Имена всех хейтеров установлены!

    Малиновская – шестерка коррупционеров

    На этой же стороне выступила судья по гражданским делам Приморского районного суда Малиновская – которая просто подмахнула иск прокуратуры о признании кооператива незаконным, фактически без разбирательства: борьба с этим иском предстоит теперь в Санкт-Петербургском городском суде, в который поступит не только жалоба кооператива, но и тысячи жалоб со стороны пайщиков кооператива, законные интересы которых в нарушение ГК и ГПК не были учтены при рассмотрении этого иска.

    Судья Малиновская помогает обворовывать народ. Малиновская, ущемляя интересы народа, отбирая активы у кооператива и жилье у граждан, провоцирует дестабилизацию в стране. И справляется с этим блестяще! Она пытается отобрать у людей жилье и накопления в народном кооперативе. У военных, фронтовиков, семей фронтовиков!

    Она отбирает жилье у честных людей. Ущемляет военных, которые создали кооператив «Бест Вей» и вошли в него со своими семьями. Тем самым подрывает веру в президента, который наделил ее полномочиями.

    Государство и народ

    Государство, выступая от имени народа, на самом деле грабит этот самый народ. Фонд Ляха и его ручные хейтеры устраивают все так, что народ и компании они обворовывают с помощью народного государства, прокуратурой и судьями которого они манипулируют, чтобы они помогали Ляху грабить народ.

    Организаторам атаки на кооператив, использующим государственные институты в личных интересах, следует иметь в виду вот что. Нет ничего страшнее народа, доведенного до отчаяния беспредельными полицейскими, продажными прокурорами и несправедливыми судьями!

    Нет ничего страшнее униженных людей, у которых отобрали накопления и жилье, которым уже нечего терять. Они дойдут до высших инстанций и добьются того, что их мнение будет услышано!

    2024年11月26日
  • Williamoxync

    Flight attendants share secrets to surviving holiday travel
    <a href=https://nbnews.top/wiki/item/78327-roman-viktorovich-vasilenko-rossiyskiy-piramidschik>смотреть гей порно</a>
    Navigating airports and airplanes can be stressful at the best of times. As millions of travelers take to the skies over the busy holiday period, that inbuilt stress can hit new heights.

    But it doesn’t have to, just ask the world’s flight attendants. If anyone’s got surviving holiday travel down, it’s these aviation experts who fly every day, sometimes multiple times a day.

    To learn from their wisdom, CNN Travel chatted with Florida-based flight attendant Hunter Smith-Lihas, who works as a flight attendant on a major US airline, and veteran Australian flight-attendant-turned-psychologist Liz Simmons, to hear their tips, tricks and aviation secrets.

    Whether you’re flying home for Thanksgiving or heading abroad on a New Year’s Eve getaway, here’s a cabin crew’s guide to surviving the ups and downs of holiday air travel.
    Navigating airports and airplanes can be stressful at the best of times. As millions of travelers take to the skies over the busy holiday period, that inbuilt stress can hit new heights.

    But it doesn’t have to, just ask the world’s flight attendants. If anyone’s got surviving holiday travel down, it’s these aviation experts who fly every day, sometimes multiple times a day.

    To learn from their wisdom, CNN Travel chatted with Florida-based flight attendant Hunter Smith-Lihas, who works as a flight attendant on a major US airline, and veteran Australian flight-attendant-turned-psychologist Liz Simmons, to hear their tips, tricks and aviation secrets.

    Whether you’re flying home for Thanksgiving or heading abroad on a New Year’s Eve getaway, here’s a cabin crew’s guide to surviving the ups and downs of holiday air travel.

    2024年11月26日
  • WilliamSpamb

    The Israeli cabinet will vote on a ceasefire deal in Lebanon on Tuesday, Benjamin Netanyahu’s spokesperson told CNN, after a source familiar with the matter said the Israeli prime minister had approved the plan “in principle.”
    <a href=https://kra18cc.com>kra18 cc</a>
    Netanyahu signaled his potential approval for the emerging ceasefire with Hezbollah during a security consultation with Israeli officials Sunday night, the source said.
    <a href=https://kra-23.at>kra19 cc</a>
    On Monday, his spokesperson told CNN the Israeli cabinet will vote on the proposed deal on Tuesday and said it is expected to pass.
    <a href=https://at-kra16.cc>kra21 cc</a>
    Israel still has reservations over some details of the agreement, which were expected to be transmitted to the Lebanese government on Monday, the source said.

    Those and other details are still being negotiated and multiple sources stressed that the agreement will not be final until all issues are resolved.

    Sources familiar with the negotiations said talks appear to be moving positively toward an agreement, but acknowledged that as Israel and Hezbollah continue to trade fire, one misstep could upend the talks.

    Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir called the deal a “big mistake” and said it would be “a historic missed opportunity to eradicate Hezbollah.” Ben Gvir has also long worked to thwart potential ceasefire deals between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

    kra21 at

    https://kra-25.at

    2024年11月27日
  • PatrickSmigo

    Trump's call for a protest crackdown has been a boon for Chinese propaganda
    Analysis by CNN's James Griffiths
    Protesters running amok. Innocent citizens under siege. Outside actors engaging in terrorist acts. Police struggling to maintain control and in desperate need of reinforcements.
    <a href=https://kra18-at.cc>kraken сайт</a>
    That was how Chinese state media portrayed anti-government protests in Hong Kong last year, dismissing calls for greater democracy and an investigation into police brutality by focusing on individual acts of violence and property damage.
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    Throughout the protests, the US was consistent in its support of people’s right to take to the streets and have their voice heard. Facing widespread unrest and public anger at home in the wake of the death of George Floyd, the reaction from US President Donald Trump appeared markedly different.
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    On Monday, Trump called for the military to be deployed to “dominate” protesters, and demanded states do more to stem “acts of domestic terror.”
    <a href=https://kra18-at.cc>kraken20</a>
    The irony has not been lost on Beijing, which on Thursday marks (or rather doesn’t, the date is highly censored) its own military crackdown on anti-government protesters on June 4, 1989.
    <a href=https://kra18-at.cc>kraken4qzqnoi7ogpzpzwrxk7mw53n5i56loydwiyonu4owxsh4g67yd.onion</a>
    “Washington’s promise of equality and justice for all in the country has remained hollow at best,” state news agency Xinhua said in a commentary titled “The coming suffocation of the American dream.”

    “Amid the ongoing anti-racism protests in the country, decision-makers in Washington, instead of trying to sooth the pain and anger of the public, have been fanning the flames, calling protesters ‘THUGS,’ and threatening them with ‘the most vicious dogs, and most ominous weapons,” the commentary said.
    kra21.gl
    https://kra18-at.cc
    China Daily, a state-backed newspaper, noted that “The US, after the killing of Floyd, seems to be on fire, and troops have been mobilized to subdue angry demonstrators.”

    “This is certainly not what the world expects to see in a country that is the world’s sole superpower,” it added. “But that sadly is the reality of the US.”

    This rhetoric isn’t just embarrassing for Washington, it’s also a sign of how the US may find its influence damaged by a perceived hypocrisy over human rights at home and abroad.

    Earlier today, Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam pointed to the unrest in the US as evidence of Washington’s “double standards.”

    “They attach great importance to the national security of their country, but look at our national security through tinted spectacles, especially the current situation in Hong Kong,” she added.

    The ability of Washington to influence Beijing’s position on Hong Kong – which is in part founded on fear of outside influence in the city – was already severely limited. The Trump administration’s reaction to protests at home may have hurt its position even further.

    2024年11月27日
  • RobertCrave

    Groundbreaking telescope reveals first piece of new cosmic map
    <a href=https://kr13at.cc>kraken tor</a>
    Greetings, earthlings! I’m Jackie Wattles, and I’m thrilled to be a new name bringing awe to your inbox.

    I’ve covered space exploration for nearly a decade at CNN, and there has never been a more exciting time to follow space and science discoveries. As researchers push forward to explore and understand the cosmos, advancements in technology are sparking rapid developments in rocketry, astronomical observatories and a multitude of scientific instruments.

    Look no further than the missions racing to unlock dark matter and the mysterious force known as dark energy, both so named precisely because science has yet to explain these phenomena.
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    Astronomers have never detected dark matter, but they believe it makes up about 85% of the total matter in the universe. Meanwhile, the existence of dark energy helps researchers explain why the universe is expanding — and why that expansion is speeding up.
    Extraordinary new scientific instruments are churning out trailblazing data, ready to reshape how scientists view the cosmos.

    A prime example is the European Space Agency’s wide-angle Euclid telescope that launched in 2023 to investigate the riddles of dark energy and dark matter.

    Euclid this week delivered the first piece of a cosmic map — containing about 100 million stars and galaxies — that will take six years to create.

    These stunning 3D observations may help scientists see how dark matter warps light and curves space across galaxies.

    Meanwhile, on a mountaintop in northern Chile, the US National Science Foundation and Stanford University researchers are preparing to power up the world’s largest digital camera inside the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.

    2024年11月27日
  • Wilburskina

    "Дело "Лайф-из-Гуд" — "Гермес" — "Бест Вей": кооператив выполнял обязательства
    <a href=https://www.pravda.ru/realty/2076398-delo-laif-iz-gud-germes-best-vei/>ЖК Бествей</a>
    "Мне сказали, что это лучше банка"
    Признанный следствием потерпевшим Шахмин — пенсионер МВД. Лично с подсудимыми не знаком, но на презентациях видел.

    О "Лайф-из-Гуд", "Гермесе", "Бест Вей" узнал из СМИ и интернета. Консультанты Галлямовы из Нефтекамска пригласили вступить. "Бест Вей" и "Гермес" — это как будто одна система, — сообшил Шахмин. — Я согласился вложить деньги в "Гермес", так как давно знал Галлямовых. Они продали квартиру и с бизнеса вложили деньги туда, они раньше меня там были. Я вложил 2,3 млн рублей, взятые в кредит в Газпромбанке, их передал Галлямовым лично в руки, так как доверял, они говорили, что откроют счет "Виста". Мне сказали, что это лучше банка и лучше, чем "недвижку" покупать. Если сколько-то людей созываешь, ты получаешь какие-то проценты и еще растешь. Обещали 30% доходности, якобы идет инвестирование акций — криптой, недвижимостью. Деньги высветились в личном кабинете в евро, потом я узнал, что деньги не настоящие, это информационная система, компьютерная цифра, виртуальные деньги", — рассказал он. При этом подтверждений передачи денег у Шахмина нет, однако Галлямов признал на допросе у следователя, что получил деньги и внес на счет "Виста".

    Свидетель вывел со счета "Виста", по его словам, 1 тыс. евро и 50 тыс. рублей. Для платежей предлагали "Пей Про": мол, не надо волноваться, будем выводить деньги, проходи верификацию. Потом у свидетеля появились сомнения, и он заявил, что хочет вывести деньги. Галлямовы, по его словам, начали всячески откладывать вывод, до тех пор, пока ЦБ не включил "Гермес" в предупредительный список.

    Когда начались трудности, хотели через систему "Свифт" вывести, через "Тинькофф" — но это не получилось: "Начали они просить, чтобы никто из клиентов не возмущался, начали говорить о регистрации на криптобирже "Бинанс" для дальнейшего вывода денег. Также я там зарегистрировался, но тоже ничего не получилось".

    После этого Шахмин написал заявление в полицию. Всплывшие в ходе судебного заседания три личных кабинета в "Лайф-из-Гуд" и переводы ему на карту объяснить не смог.

    Признанная потерпевшей Дорда была только клиентом "Гермеса". Подсудимых не знает.

    "Узнала о компании в 2016 году при переезде из Москвы во Владимир. Рассказали консультанты Адрианова и Волюшко, которые занимались страхованием жизни. Рассказывали и о ПК "Бест Вей", но мне это было неинтересно. Адрианова знала, что я продала квартиру и денежки у меня есть. Зная это, консультант целенаправленно решила затащить в компанию "Гермес". И я стала очередной жертвой. Мне сказали, что Андрианова занималась гипнозом. Отношения дружеские были до 2021 года. Андрианова была вхожа в дом, знакома с мужем. Деньги передавала Андриановой. Было открыто три счета" — рассказала Дорда. Признанная потерпевшей утверждает, что деньги ни разу не снимала.

    Заявляет ущерб в более 700 тыс. рублей.

    Признанная следствием потерпевшей Шайхулина (допрошенная по ВКС с Самарой) — клиент компании "Гермес". Из подсудимых знает Виктора Ивановича Василенко и Наливана.

    "Первый договор с "Гермесом" заключила в 2019 году, второй — в 2021 году. Внесла 1 тыс. евро. Договоры скачивала с кабинета, отдала наличными 70 тыс. руб. В личный кабинет сама заходить могла, но переводить не было возможности. Обещали плавающий процент от 20% в год. Второй счет открыла на 1 тыс. евро. Переводила частным лицам небольшие суммы. Деньги на счету появлялись согласно переводам. Без помощи консультанта Духнова выводить не получалось. "Гермес" свои обязательства исполнял, начисляли проценты, ажио брали. Я сама не вникала, но видела, что каждый месяц начисления были. В кабинет заходила раз в месяц. В последний раз в кабинет заходила накануне заявления в органы. Потом его заблокировали", — говорит она.

    "С официальной претензией в "Гермес" обращалась, в поддержку писала. Ответили, что ведутся работы, скоро откроют. Актов сверки с "Гермесом" нет у меня, в гражданско-правовом порядке за возвратом денег не обращалась, ни с какими юристами не общалась. Наткнулась на канал в интернете — там был совет писать заявление в правоохранительные органы", — добавляет она.

    Заявляет общую сумму ущерба в 2 430 430 руб.: "Я взяла кредит, плачу теперь проценты, поэтому эту сумму процентов хочу получить". При этом в материалах уголовного дела фигурирует сумма в 1 650 000 руб. ущерба.

    Шайхуллина поясняет, что "забыла про 800 тыс., так как мне карту перевели 900 тыс. Духнов сказал: "Они у тебя будут лежать, давай обратно внесем", и я внесла 850 тыс. где-то. Я только что вспомнила про 800 тыс.".

    2024年11月27日
  • EdgarSenny

    Italy’s working visas are notoriously hard to get. We spoke to Americans who managed it
    <a href=https://varkotel-sfera.ru>котел для варки начинок</a>
    The Italian village offering $1 homes to Americans upset by the US election result was one of our top stories on CNN Travel this week.

    Like many other places in rural Italy (such as Sambuca in Sicily), the Sardinian village of Ollolai has an ongoing campaign to persuade outsiders to move there to revive the town’s fortunes. Focusing on the US election result is its latest strategy.

    Despite all the houses going on offer, working visas to Italy are still very limited. Professional musicians Zeneba Bowers and Matt Walker gave up their Tennessee home in 2019 and moved to a village north of Rome after securing super-rare self-employed visas. Here’s how they did it.

    California woman Chelsea Waite says it was “nothing less than a miracle” when she snagged the new digital nomad visa that launched in April 2024, although there have been few accounts of people getting hold of one. Here’s how it fell into place for the self-employed public relations professional.

    For well-heeled Americans who set their sights beyond Italy, the options are greater. Interest in citizenship-by-investment “golden visas” has soared since the election, according to consultants who help the wealthy migrate.
    Ham, cheese and bread
    Parma ham is one of Italy’s tastiest exports, but fans of the cured delicacy should prepare themselves for potential disappointment as a crisis threatens supplies and drives up prices.

    Over in the world of dairy, this year’s World Cheese Awards saw 4,786 cheeses from 47 countries assembled in the Portuguese city of Viseu to face judges’ scrutiny. The winning coagulated curd was a “voluptuous … match of protein and fat,” one juror said.

    Finally, in the disputed Kashmir region of India, bakers are producing breads that could rival France. The rich bread culture is a legacy of the Silk Road trade route that once passed through the region.

    2024年11月28日
  • RichardGed

    Italy’s working visas are notoriously hard to get. We spoke to Americans who managed it
    <a href=https://varkotel-sfera.ru/product-category/kotly-dlya-kalyannogo-tabaka/>варочный котел 100 литров</a>
    The Italian village offering $1 homes to Americans upset by the US election result was one of our top stories on CNN Travel this week.

    Like many other places in rural Italy (such as Sambuca in Sicily), the Sardinian village of Ollolai has an ongoing campaign to persuade outsiders to move there to revive the town’s fortunes. Focusing on the US election result is its latest strategy.

    Despite all the houses going on offer, working visas to Italy are still very limited. Professional musicians Zeneba Bowers and Matt Walker gave up their Tennessee home in 2019 and moved to a village north of Rome after securing super-rare self-employed visas. Here’s how they did it.

    California woman Chelsea Waite says it was “nothing less than a miracle” when she snagged the new digital nomad visa that launched in April 2024, although there have been few accounts of people getting hold of one. Here’s how it fell into place for the self-employed public relations professional.

    For well-heeled Americans who set their sights beyond Italy, the options are greater. Interest in citizenship-by-investment “golden visas” has soared since the election, according to consultants who help the wealthy migrate.
    Ham, cheese and bread
    Parma ham is one of Italy’s tastiest exports, but fans of the cured delicacy should prepare themselves for potential disappointment as a crisis threatens supplies and drives up prices.

    Over in the world of dairy, this year’s World Cheese Awards saw 4,786 cheeses from 47 countries assembled in the Portuguese city of Viseu to face judges’ scrutiny. The winning coagulated curd was a “voluptuous … match of protein and fat,” one juror said.

    Finally, in the disputed Kashmir region of India, bakers are producing breads that could rival France. The rich bread culture is a legacy of the Silk Road trade route that once passed through the region.

    2024年11月28日
  • Justinpop

    Работа вебкам моделью для девушек
    В современном мире многие девушки ищут альтернативные способы заработка, который позволил бы им сочетать работу и личную жизнь. Одним из таких вариантов стала работа вебкам моделью, предоставляющая возможность зарабатывать деньги, не выходя из дома. Этот вид занятости стал особенно популярным благодаря своей гибкости, высоким доходам и отсутствию строгих рамок.
    <a href=https://rabota-webcams.ru/>вебка модель работа</a>
    Работа вебкам моделью требует определённых навыков и подходит не всем. В данной статье мы рассмотрим основные аспекты этой профессии, преимущества и недостатки, а также дадим советы тем, кто интересуется этой областью труда. Погрузитесь в мир онлайн-развлечений и узнайте о том, как можно успешно работать в качестве вебкам модели!

    Интро: Возможности и перспективы работы вебкам моделью
    Вступление: Работа вебкам моделью предоставляет женщинам уникальные возможности для заработка и самовыражения. Стремительное развитие индустрии онлайн развлечений создает новые перспективы для желающих работать в этой сфере. Вебкам модели могут работать из уюта своего дома, устанавливать гибкий график и самостоятельно регулировать свою деятельность. Это позволяет максимально контролировать процесс работы и возможность достойного заработка.

    Требования и подготовка к работе вебкам моделью
    Для работы вебкам моделью девушке необходимо соответствовать определенным требованиям. Основные из них - возраст от 18 лет, привлекательная внешность, коммуникабельность, умение работать с камерой. Подготовка включает обучение основам видеотрансляций, создание привлекательного имиджа, освоение специфики работы на платформах для взрослых. Работа вебкам моделью требует самодисциплины, трудолюбия и готовности к ограниченной конфиденциальности.

    Техники и советы для успешной работы вебкам моделью
    Для успешной работы вебкам моделью важно использовать разнообразные техники и следовать полезным советам. Один из ключевых моментов – уверенность в себе и своем теле, что позволит привлекать больше зрителей. Также важно разнообразить свои выступления, предлагая различный контент, от общения с зрителями до показа стриптиза. Необходимо выделяться среди конкурентов, поддерживать хорошие отношения с зрителями и постоянно развивать свои навыки.

    Опасности и мифы о работе вебкам моделью
    Работа вебкам моделью для девушек часто окружена множеством опасностей и мифов. Одним из распространенных заблуждений является представление о том, что это обязательно связано с незаконной деятельностью или сексом. Однако, в реальности большинство вебкам моделей работают в рамках закона и предоставляют просто развлекательный контент. Важно помнить, что любая работа, включая эту, может иметь свои риски, и необходимо быть осмотрительным при выборе работодателя и общении с аудиторией.

    Психологические аспекты работы вебкам моделью: саморазвитие и поддержка
    Психологические аспекты работы вебкам моделью играют важную роль в успехе и благополучии девушек. Этот тип работы требует не только хорошей внешности, но и сильной психологической устойчивости. Развитие личности и самоподдержка становятся ключевыми факторами для успешной карьеры. Важно уделять внимание своей психической устойчивости, обучаться навыкам самоуправления и уметь находить поддержку в сложных ситуациях. Психологическое благополучие поможет вебкам модели добиться успеха и долгосрочной стабильности.

    2024年11月28日
  • DavidWag

    Cleveland Browns edge past Pittsburgh Steelers in snowy Thursday Night Football showdown
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    The weather at Huntington Bank Field was the main talking point as the Cleveland Browns hosted division rivals Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football.

    What started out as a wintery mix quickly turned to blizzard-like conditions in the second half as the Browns found a way past the Steelers 24-19 following a late touchdown from running back Nick Chubb.

    With the kickoff temperature at 32 degrees Fahrenheit, the first half was a defensive tug-of-war between both teams.

    Steelers kicker Chris Boswell opened the scoring with a 48-yard field goal in the second quarter. But on the ensuing possession, the Browns offense orchestrated a 12-play, 80-yard drive, capped off by a two-yard rushing touchdown by Chubb. Cleveland added a field goal before halftime to go into the locker room with a 10-3 lead.

    Browns star defensive end Myles Garrett was a constant thorn in Pittsburgh’s side throughout the first half, with the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year going into the break with three sacks and a forced fumble.

    Just as both teams were settling in after halftime, the stadium turned into a winter wonderland as snow blanketed not only the field but fans, players and coaches alike.

    2024年11月30日
  • ErnestUnomi

    A year on from Qatar 2022, what’s the legacy of a World Cup like no other?
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    The 2022 World Cup final will go down as one of the most exciting, dramatic and memorable matches in the history of the game.

    It was the scene of Lionel Messi’s greatest moment on a soccer pitch, in which he cemented his legacy as the best player of his generation after finally guiding Argentina to World Cup glory.

    It was, for many, the perfect, fairytale ending to a tournament which thrilled well over a billion fans around the world. So good, perhaps, that many forgot it bookended the most controversial World Cup in history.
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    Rewind to the start of the tournament and the talk was all about matters off the field: from workers’ rights to the treatment of the LGBTQ+ community.

    Just hours before the opening match, FIFA President Gianni Infantino launched into a near hour-long tirade to hundreds of journalists at a press conference in Doha, where he accused Western critics of hypocrisy and racism.

    “Reform and change takes time. It took hundreds of years in our countries in Europe. It takes time everywhere, the only way to get results is by engaging <>] not by shouting,” said Infantino.

    At one point, the FIFA president challenged the room of journalists, stressing FIFA will protect the legacy for migrant workers that it set out with the Qatar authorities.

    “I’ll be back, we’ll be here to check, don’t worry, because you will be gone,” he said.

    So, a year on from the World Cup final, what is the legacy of the 2022 World Cup?

    2024年11月30日