这一工具再创新高 市场向美联储说:够了 QE已经过头了!

2021年05月28日 8523点热度 0人点赞 1,840条评论

这一工具再创新高 市场向美联储说:够了 QE已经过头了! 来源:华尔街见闻

  美联储隔夜逆回购工具使用规模周四升至4853亿美元,刷新2015年末创下的历史新高纪录,连续第八个交易日增加。分析称,美国关键短期利率有跌破0的风险,市场上流动性太多,有人说也许离缩减购债taper不远了。

从无人问津到需求量创新高,这是一个影响美国关键短期利率的美联储政策工具在短短两个月里的惊人变化。分析称,这是市场向央妈发出的最明确信号:QE够了,流动性过剩我们受不了了。

5月27日周四,负责美联储公开市场操作的纽约联储发布数据称,具有回笼流动性功能的美联储隔夜逆回购(O/N RRP)用量规模继续飙升,当日增至4853亿美元,创历史新高,连续第八个交易日增加,也持续超过去年3月新冠疫情高峰期的水平。

这一数据比周三的隔夜逆回购工具用量增加350亿美元,交易对手方从昨日的46个增至50个。上一个历史最高纪录是2015年12月31日的4746亿美元。

这一工具再创新高 市场向美联储说:够了 QE已经过头了!

金融博客Zerohedge称,这代表存放在美联储的隔夜准备金在一周内增加了“惊人的”1340亿美元,持续刷新非季末史上最高的逆回购使用量,预计早晚有一天将突破5000亿美元整数大关。

隔夜逆回购激增给短期利率带来下行压力,不少分析称美联储应开始缩减购债

正回购和逆回购是美联储公开市场操作的两种手段,通过与交易对手方的协议直接投放或收回基础货币。与中国央行的公开市场操作相反,美联储通过正回购释放流动性、逆回购回收流动性。

持有大量现金的金融机构通过逆回购工具把钱借给美联储,换取美国国债作为抵押品,利率仅为0%。隔夜逆回购是流动性过剩时期的市场资金庇护所,其利率充当美联储利率走廊下限。隔夜逆回购需求和接收量激增,正是疫情后无限量QE买债和财政刺激导致的市场流动性过剩体现。

路透社分析称,对美联储隔夜逆回购工具的需求量自3月中旬以来攀升,终于在周四突破了历史最高。这将进一步给关键短期利率施压,这些利率可能转为负数。道明证券(TD Securities)高级利率策略师Gennadiy Goldberg指出,担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)等货币市场利率可能低于0。

事实上,追踪一般抵押品(GC)金融回购协议每日市场利率的DTCC GCF回购指数在隔夜恰恰交投-0.01%,重返3月下旬以来的最低水平,是过多现金正在蜂拥追逐良好抵押品的信号。

这一工具再创新高 市场向美联储说:够了 QE已经过头了!

Curvature Securities固收与回购业务执行副总裁Scott Skyrm近日指出,在非月末和非季度末的美联储逆回购需求如此之大,说明市场已被扭曲,要么是市场上现金过多,要么是(国债等)抵押品不足:

“从总体上看,这向我暗示了量化宽松已经完成,美联储需要逐渐缩减购债(taper),为期一年、每月购买约1200亿美元的QE量宽计划,不再能通过向金融市场增加流动性来实现预期的效果,释放出了QE已经做过头的市场信号。”

夏季FOMC会议可能给出taper信号,但狭义流动性过剩未必立刻引发政策收紧

在今年3月的FOMC会议上,美联储将合格交易对手方可以使用隔夜逆回购工具的金额从300亿美元大幅抬升至800亿美元。最新发布的美联储4月FOMC会议纪要也指出,央行预计这一工具的使用规模会在未来几个月继续增加。

分析称,自2月以来,短期美债(T-bill)供应减少是造成失衡的原因之一。巴克莱固收研究部常务董事Joseph Abate称,货币基金、非美国官方机构等正苦恼于无法找到收益率高于0%的短期安全资产,“在把钱放在美联储资产负债表之外几乎没有其他投资选择”。

同时,美联储QE买债、美国财政部在美联储一般账户(TGA)的余额缩减(等于给市场“放水”)、最近向州和地方政府提供的财政刺激支付都增加了更多现金,监管方面的限制也促使银行拒绝接受存款(有计划地限制资产负债表扩张),并将这些现金推向货币市场基金,上述因素均增加了对美联储隔夜逆回购工具的需求。

中信明明在最新研报中认为,常规而言,隔夜逆回购激增往往发生在季末,非季度末出现逆回购额高速增长,反映当前流动性已处于过剩状态,预计接下来两周和6月末出现逆回购额大幅攀升:

“4月FOMC纪要提及两次议息会议期间,准备金余额进一步增长至创纪录的3.9万亿美元水平,隔夜逆回购协议(ON RRP)有效支持政策实施,吸收资金量的峰值超过1000亿美元。

与日俱增的隔夜逆回购规模都预示着Taper的临近,在具体节奏上,可能于年底前后采取减少购债规模的行动,但会更早发出减少购债规模的信号,6月或7月的议息会议将是重要时点。

英国《金融时报》援引分析人士称,金融体系钱太多,或迫使美联储调整货币政策。下一步可能包括提高美联储向银行支付的超额准备金利率(IOER),另一个是提高美联储逆回购的利率。而IOER在现实中是作为联邦基金利率的走廊上限。

金融博客ZeroHedge则认为,美联储要么不得不提高IOER,要么利率很快降至负值。更糟糕的是,即使假设今年12月开始缩减购债规模(taper),美联储仍计划实施至少1万亿美元的QE买债,据美联储最近预测,这一数字可能会高达2万亿美元,“根本没有地方存放所有这些准备金”。

昨日分析则给出了略微不一样的观点,美联储隔夜逆回购用量非季末大幅飙升,说明狭义的流动性水平过剩了,未必会立刻引发美联储收紧政策,但恐怕会引发资产价格上涨:

狭义流动性水平过剩会影响Taper的节奏么?逻辑上并不合理。

狭义流动性过剩首先会通过使用货币工具来解决。好比我国DR007或拆借利率如果大幅度低于公开市场7天逆回购利率等(政策利率)的时候,更大概率会通过加强公开市场回笼来调节,甚至发行定向央票。而不至于先去调节逆回购利率,甚至上升到全局货币政策的层面。何况RRP回笼期限和QE买入资产期限存在较大的期限差。

所以对于Taper的节奏和讨论时点,我们依然维持前期分析文章中的观点:首先要等到就业缺口闭合和疫苗接种率达到70%-80%,同时通胀表现出一定的刚性。从这个层面来看,上调RRP利率可能都非当前首选。

    Kratos

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    Компания «Life Is Good» позиционировала себя как финансово-консалтинговый проект. Она привлекала денежные активы от клиентов, формируя из них инвестиционные вклады, которые приносят пассивный доход от 20% годовых в валюте.

    Официальный сайт компании — lifeisgood.company. Ценной информации на нем очень мало. В разделе «О компании» вместо рассказа о том, чем занимается компания, — общие фразы про финансовую независимость и благополучие клиентов, а также шесть рекламных роликов с известными людьми.
    Данная компания создана в 2014 году. Зарегистрирована в государстве-офшоре Белиз, что находится в Центральной Америке. Соответственно, выданный там сертификат не имеет на территории России никакой юридической силы. Лицензия ЦБ РФ отсутствует.

    Руководитель компании — Роман Василенко, обладатель многочисленных фотошопных регалий, количеству которых позавидовал бы даже Александр Невский (уот так уот), ветеран МЛМ движения в РФ, ну практически святой человек.

    С 1990 года по 1999 год служил в Вооруженных силах РФ.

    После службы работал в инвестиционной компании Save-Invest (Si), зарегистрированной в Швейцарии, которая обещала инвестиционные продукты со сверх доходностью. В 2000х годах газета Коммерсантъ выпустила статью о расследовании сотрудников ФСБ на предмет ведения мошеннической деятельности в РФ.

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    Также Роман активно ведёт блог в инстаграмме и на ютуб, темы всё те же — успешный успех, освободись от рабства, нужно только захотеть и т.д.

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    British actress Gemma Arterton has revealed that a director once tried to put pressure on her to film a sex scene, despite the fact that it wasn’t included in the script.

    In an interview with British publication the Radio Times, released Tuesday, Arterton said that, whilst on set, the director - who hasn’t been named - instructed her and her co-star to film a sex scene on a bed.

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    2024年9月15日
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    Long-lost copy of the US Constitution, found in North Carolina filing cabinet, heads to auction
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    Historical document appraiser and collector Seth Kaller spreads a broad sheet of paper across a desk. It’s in good enough condition that he can handle it, carefully, with clean, bare hands. There are just a few creases and tiny discolorations, even though it’s just a few weeks shy of 237 years old and has spent who knows how long inside a filing cabinet in North Carolina.

    At the top of the first page are familiar words but in regular type instead of the sweeping Gothic script we’re used to seeing: “WE, the People …”

    And the people will get a chance to bid for this copy of the US Constitution — the only of its type thought to be in private hands — at a sale by Brunk Auctions on Sept. 28 in Asheville, North Carolina.
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    This copy was printed after the Constitutional Convention finished drafting the proposed framework of the nation’s government in 1787 and sent it to the Congress of the ineffective first American government under the Articles of Confederation, requesting they send it to the states to be ratified by the people.

    It’s one of about 100 copies printed by the secretary of that Congress, Charles Thomson. Just eight are known to still exist and the other seven are publicly owned.

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    Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have had a fiery 90-minute debate in Philadelphia - their first of the 2024 US presidential election
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    After shaking hands - it was the first time they had met - the pair debated policy before moving onto more personal attacks

    Harris said people leave Trump rallies early "out of exhaustion and boredom" - he said people don't go to hers in the first place
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    Trump criticised Harris's record on immigration and the border, and also her shifting policy positions - Harris blamed him for "Trump abortion bans" and for the 6 January attacks on the US Capitol

    Snap polls suggest Harris won the debate, but Trump says afterwards that she "lost very badly"

    With the election taking place on 5 November, Harris is slightly ahead in national opinion polls - but polls are very tight in key battleground states

    Shortly after the debate, Taylor Swift endorsed Harris on Instagram, calling her a ''gifted leader''

    2024年9月15日
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    Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have had a fiery 90-minute debate in Philadelphia - their first of the 2024 US presidential election
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    After shaking hands - it was the first time they had met - the pair debated policy before moving onto more personal attacks

    Harris said people leave Trump rallies early "out of exhaustion and boredom" - he said people don't go to hers in the first place
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    Trump criticised Harris's record on immigration and the border, and also her shifting policy positions - Harris blamed him for "Trump abortion bans" and for the 6 January attacks on the US Capitol

    Snap polls suggest Harris won the debate, but Trump says afterwards that she "lost very badly"

    With the election taking place on 5 November, Harris is slightly ahead in national opinion polls - but polls are very tight in key battleground states

    Shortly after the debate, Taylor Swift endorsed Harris on Instagram, calling her a ''gifted leader''

    2024年9月15日
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    Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have had a fiery 90-minute debate in Philadelphia - their first of the 2024 US presidential election
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    After shaking hands - it was the first time they had met - the pair debated policy before moving onto more personal attacks

    Harris said people leave Trump rallies early "out of exhaustion and boredom" - he said people don't go to hers in the first place
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    Trump criticised Harris's record on immigration and the border, and also her shifting policy positions - Harris blamed him for "Trump abortion bans" and for the 6 January attacks on the US Capitol

    Snap polls suggest Harris won the debate, but Trump says afterwards that she "lost very badly"

    With the election taking place on 5 November, Harris is slightly ahead in national opinion polls - but polls are very tight in key battleground states

    Shortly after the debate, Taylor Swift endorsed Harris on Instagram, calling her a ''gifted leader''

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    National Park calls out ‘world changing’ impact of dropped Cheetos bag
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    Plain water is the only thing visitors are allowed to consume inside the huge cavern at Carlsbad Caverns National Park in New Mexico. Cheetos are a no-go, and the recent park visitor who dropped a bag full of them created a “huge impact” on the cave’s ecosystem, the park said Friday in a Facebook post.

    “At the scale of human perspective, a spilled snack bag may seem trivial, but to the life of the cave it can be world changing,” the park said in its post about the garbage found off-trail in the Big Room.
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    The park said rangers spent 20 minutes carefully removing molds and foreign debris from surfaces inside the cave, noting that while some members of the ecosystem that rose from the snacks were cave-dwellers “many of the microbial life and molds are not.”
    The post called that particular impact on the cave “completely avoidable,” contrasting it with the hard-to-prevent fine trails of lint left by each visitor.

    “Great or small we all leave an impact wherever we go. Let us all leave the world a better place than we found it,” the post urged park goers.
    The park’s website says that eating and drinking anything other than plain water attracts animals into the cavern.

    Carlsbad Caverns followed up its post about the Cheetos bag with a post about the “leave no trace” principle of disposing of waste properly.

    “Contrary to popular belief, the cave is NOT a big trash can,” the post said, yet rangers pick up waste left behind every day.

    “Sometimes this can be a gum wrapper or a tissue, other times it can unfortunately mean human waste, spit, or chewing tobacco.” Visitors are asked to make sure they don’t leave trash in the cavern and to use designated restrooms.

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    The world still holds many unanswered questions. But thanks to the efforts of the research teams awarded the IG Nobel Prize on Thursday, some of these questions – which you might not even have thought existed – now have answers.

    We now know that many mammals can breathe through their anuses, that there isn’t an equal probability that a coin will land on head or tails, that some real plants somehow imitate the shapes of neighboring fake plastic plants, that fake medicine which causes painful side-effects can be more effective than fake medicine without side-effects, and that many of the people famous for reaching lofty old ages lived in places that had bad record-keeping.
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    The awards – which have no affiliation to the Nobel Prizes – aim to “celebrate the unusual, honor the imaginative – and spur people’s interest in science, medicine, and technology” by making “people laugh, then think.”

    In a two-hour ceremony as quirky as the scientific achievements it was celebrating, audience members were welcomed to their seats by accordion music, before a safety briefing warned them not to “sit on anyone, unless you are a child,” not to “feed, chase or eat ducks” and to throw their paper airplane safely. There were two “paper airplane deluges” during the ceremony in which the audience attempted to throw their creations – safely – at a target in the middle of the stage.
    Among those collecting their prizes was a Japanese research team led by Ryo Okabe and Takanori Takebe who discovered that mammals can breathe through their anuses. They say in their paper that this potentially offers an alternative way of getting oxygen into critically ill patients if ventilator and artificial lung supplies run low, like they did during the Covid-19 pandemic.

    American psychologist B.F Skinner was posthumously awarded the peace prize for his work attempting to use pigeons to guide the flight path of missiles, while a European-wide research team was awarded the probability prize for conducting 350,757 experiments to demonstrate that a coin tends to land on the same side it started when it is flipped.

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    Medical staff on the front line of the battle against mpox in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have told the BBC they are desperate for vaccines to arrive so they can stem the rate of new infections.
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    At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
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    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
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    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington on Thursday. Leon Neal/Getty Images
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    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House on Thursday could be his final chance to convince a receptive American president of his country’s war aims.
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    The precise details of the “victory plan” Zelensky plans to present in separate meetings to President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are unknown, having been closely held until they are presented to the American leaders.

    But according to people briefed on its broad contours, the plan reflects the Ukrainian leader’s urgent appeals for more immediate help countering Russia’s invasion. Zelensky is also poised to push for long-term security guarantees that could withstand changes in American leadership ahead of what is widely expected to be a close presidential election between Harris and former President Donald Trump.

    The plan, people familiar with it said, acts as Zelensky’s response to growing war weariness even among his staunchest of western allies. It will make the case that Ukraine can still win — and does not need to cede Russian-seized territory for the fighting to end — if enough assistance is rushed in.

    That includes again asking permission to fire Western provided long-range weapons deeper into Russian territory, a line Biden once was loathe to cross but which he’s recently appeared more open to as he has come under growing pressure to relent.

    Even if Biden decides to allow the long-range fires, it’s unclear whether the change in policy would be announced publicly.

    Biden is usually apt to take his time making decisions about providing Ukraine new capabilities. But with November’s election potentially portending a major change in American approach to the war if Trump were to win, Ukrainian officials — and many American ones — believe there is little time to waste.
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    Trump has claimed he will be able to “settle” the war upon taking office and has suggested he’ll end US support for Kyiv’s war effort.

    “Those cities are gone, they’re gone, and we continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refused to make a deal, Zelensky. There was no deal that he could have made that wouldn’t have been better than the situation you have right now. You have a country that has been obliterated, not possible to be rebuilt,” Trump said during a campaign speech in Mint Hill, North Carolina, on Wednesday.

    Comments like those have lent new weight to Thursday’s Oval Office talks, according to American and European officials, who have described an imperative to surge assistance to Ukraine while Biden is still in office.

    As part of Zelensky’s visit, the US is expected to announce a major new security package, thought it will likely delay the shipping of the equipment due to inventory shortages, CNN previously reported according to two US officials. On Wednesday, the US announced a package of $375 million.

    The president previewed Zelensky’s visit to the White House a day beforehand, declaring on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly his administration was “determined to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to prevail in fight for survival.”
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    “Tomorrow, I will announce a series of actions to accelerate support for Ukraine’s military – but we know Ukraine’s future victory is about more than what happens on the battlefield, it’s also about what Ukrainians do make the most of a free and independent future, which so many have sacrificed so much for,” he said.

    2024年10月1日