不要赌人民币升贬值!这一重磅会议罕见示警 不能用汇率升值抵消大宗商品涨价

2021年05月28日 20975点热度 0人点赞 3,662条评论

不要赌人民币升贬值!这一重磅会议罕见示警 不能用汇率升值抵消大宗商品涨价

人民币(6.3686-0.0146-0.23%)汇率更加市场化后,汇率涨跌是常态,企业要树立“风险中性”理念,避免偏离风险中性的“炒汇”行为。

5月27日,全国外汇市场自律机制第七次工作会议在北京召开。此次会议对汇率的表态较为少见,引发市场高度关注。会议认为,未来,影响汇率的市场因素和政策因素很多,人民币既可能升值,也可能贬值。没有任何人可以准确预测汇率走势。汇率不能作为工具,既不能用来贬值刺激出口,也不能用来升值抵消大宗商品价格上涨影响。关键是管理好预期,坚决打击各种恶意操纵市场、恶意制造单边预期的行为。

不要赌人民币升贬值!这一重磅会议罕见示警 不能用汇率升值抵消大宗商品涨价

尽管近期人民币兑美元汇率走势强劲,创下近三年来的高点,但市场的注意力过度聚焦在人民币兑美元汇率,而忽略了人民币兑一篮子货币的表现,后者才是反映人民币实际有效汇率的更重要指标。即便是在人民币兑美元汇率明显升值的近两个月,CFETS人民币汇率指数4月以来的升幅仅有0.32%左右,远小于人民币兑美元的升幅。

不少分析人士提醒,今年美元指数(90.08680.07400.08%)下行空间有限,下半年不排除波动向上的可能。这意味着今年人民币兑美元汇率整体上将处于“有升有贬”的双向波动格局。随着人民币汇率市场化定价机制的深化,汇率双向波动的趋势将更明显。

定调:汇率不能用来升值抵消大宗商品价格上涨

据人民银行官网消息,5月27日,全国外汇市场自律机制第七次工作会议在北京召开,全国外汇市场自律机制30家成员机构代表参加会议,会议选举中国银行行长刘金为新一届全国外汇市场自律机制主任委员,审议通过了全国外汇市场自律机制成员分层调整方案以及自律规范修订事宜。外汇自律机制成员机构专题就风险中性相关工作进行交流。中国外汇市场指导委员会(CFXC)主任委员、人民银行副行长刘国强出席并讲话,副主任委员、国家外汇管理局副局长王春英,外汇自律机制相关指导司局和外汇市场指导委员会委员参加会议。

会议认为,当前外汇市场总体平衡。未来,影响汇率的市场因素和政策因素很多,人民币既可能升值,也可能贬值。没有任何人可以准确预测汇率走势。不论是短期还是中长期,汇率测不准是必然,双向波动是常态,不论是政府、机构还是个人,都要避免被预测结论误导。以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度适合中国国情,应当长期坚持。在这一汇率制度下,汇率不能作为工具,既不能用来贬值刺激出口,也不能用来升值抵消大宗商品价格上涨影响。关键是管理好预期,坚决打击各种恶意操纵市场、恶意制造单边预期的行为。

可以看出,上述表态对近期市场上关于人民币汇率会在中长期升值、央行将放弃汇率目标等观点集中作用回应,并再次强调人民币汇率以市场供求为基础。

华创证券首席宏观分析师张瑜对证券时报·券商中国记者表示,结合近期官方对汇率的表态看,可以看出央行对人民币汇率水平并不预设点位,而是更多交由市场决定,汇率弹性会进一步加大,只有市场存在过度交易惯性的时候才会做适度的预期指引。

此外,值得注意的是,国际大宗商品价格暴涨背景下,通过人民币升值以帮助对抗输入性通胀的呼声渐高。此次会议明确“汇率不能作为工具,不能用来升值抵消大宗商品价格上涨影响”,也算是直接否定了此种提议。

平安证券首席经济学家钟正生也表示,本轮中国大宗商品涨价不能单纯定义为输入性,国内政策因素和部分核心原材料供应不足也起到了关键影响。应对本轮通胀压力还需多措并举,以缓和国内大宗商品供应紧张问题为着眼点。至于人民币汇率的走势,还是交给市场供求和国际金融市场变化决定为好,不必也不宜对其赋予更多的“念想”。

别只盯着人民币兑美元汇率

4月以来,人民币兑美元汇率重回升势,近日更是一路“高歌猛进”。截至5月27日16:30,在岸人民币兑美元汇率日间收盘报6.3758,较上一交易日涨172个基点,继续刷新三年来高位。

不要赌人民币升贬值!这一重磅会议罕见示警 不能用汇率升值抵消大宗商品涨价

不过,尽管近期人民币兑美元汇率走势强劲,人民币兑一篮子货币的表现更为“淡定”。今年以来,CFETS人民币汇率指数升幅近2.5%,4月以来升幅更是仅有0.32%左右,远小于同期在岸人民币兑美元超2%的升幅。

不要赌人民币升贬值!这一重磅会议罕见示警 不能用汇率升值抵消大宗商品涨价

人民币兑美元汇率近期的显著升值,主要源于美元指数走弱和国内经济持续复苏的影响。目前美元指数围绕90上下波动,较4月初以来已下跌近3%,但同期人民币兑美元汇率的升幅弱于美元指数的下跌幅度。

嘉盛集团资深分析师Joe Perry表示,近期美元的弱势是合理的回调,美联储对货币政策是否调整的态度还较为模糊,这导致美元愈发弱势,美元动能甚至不及卢布。在人⺠币对美元升值的同时,其实人⺠币对欧元(1.2182-0.0011-0.09%)英镑(1.4192-0.0008-0.06%)、加元等今年3月以来都是在走弱而非走强,对一篮子货币的表现都并不非常强势,这似乎可以解释中国央行近期“淡定”的态度。“我们发现,本周以来,人民币中间价与我们的模型预测基本吻合,这说明中国央行放手于市场的态度”。

国家发展与战略研究院研究员、中国宏观经济论坛(CMF)主要成员王晋斌也撰文称,4月初以来人民币对美元升值幅度小于美元指数的贬值幅度,可以发现人民币升值的驱动因素出现了边际递减趋势,这也说明人民币未来升值的空间在减少。其次,人民币兑美元双边汇率的变动幅度要明显大于人民币兑一篮子货币汇率的变动幅度,说明人民币汇率形成机制中贸易汇率的稳定性优先。

不要赌汇率升贬值,久赌必输

正如会议所说,没有任何人可以准确预测汇率走势,汇率测不准是必然,双向波动是常态。张瑜也表示,短期来看,人民币汇率的准确研判几乎不可能的,就是自由波动,由内外盘定价机制决定。从一年纬度的中期趋势看,由于美元指数在未来一年内有一波反弹的概率依然较高,押注人民币升值的要慎重。

随着人民币汇率双向波动成常态,对市场主体而言,重点不是赌人民币汇率的单边升值,而是要对人民币汇率波动的日益加大提前做好准备,做好财务规划,规避汇率风险。

会议就强调,企业和金融机构都应积极适应汇率双向波动的状态。企业要聚焦主业,树立“风险中性”理念,避免偏离风险中性的“炒汇”行为,不要赌人民币汇率升值或贬值,久赌必输。金融机构不仅不能帮助企业“炒汇”,自身也不宜“炒汇”,否则不利于银行稳健经营,还会造成汇率大起大落。

近期,监管高层密集对人民币汇率释放信号。5月23日,人民银行副行长刘国强表示,人民银行完善以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度,这一制度在当前和未来一段时期都是适合中国的汇率制度安排。未来人民币汇率的走势将继续取决于市场供求和国际金融市场变化,双向波动成为常态。人民银行将注重预期引导,发挥汇率调节宏观经济和国际收支自动稳定器作用,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。

金融委5月21日召开会议时也强调,进一步推动汇率市场化改革,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。

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    Like many other places in rural Italy (such as Sambuca in Sicily), the Sardinian village of Ollolai has an ongoing campaign to persuade outsiders to move there to revive the town’s fortunes. Focusing on the US election result is its latest strategy.

    Despite all the houses going on offer, working visas to Italy are still very limited. Professional musicians Zeneba Bowers and Matt Walker gave up their Tennessee home in 2019 and moved to a village north of Rome after securing super-rare self-employed visas. Here’s how they did it.

    California woman Chelsea Waite says it was “nothing less than a miracle” when she snagged the new digital nomad visa that launched in April 2024, although there have been few accounts of people getting hold of one. Here’s how it fell into place for the self-employed public relations professional.

    For well-heeled Americans who set their sights beyond Italy, the options are greater. Interest in citizenship-by-investment “golden visas” has soared since the election, according to consultants who help the wealthy migrate.
    Ham, cheese and bread
    Parma ham is one of Italy’s tastiest exports, but fans of the cured delicacy should prepare themselves for potential disappointment as a crisis threatens supplies and drives up prices.

    Over in the world of dairy, this year’s World Cheese Awards saw 4,786 cheeses from 47 countries assembled in the Portuguese city of Viseu to face judges’ scrutiny. The winning coagulated curd was a “voluptuous … match of protein and fat,” one juror said.

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    2024年12月9日
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    2024年12月9日
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    2024年12月9日
  • ChesterNex

    You’ve come across a bison in the wild. It’s looking at you. Do you know what to do next?
    <a href=https://sites.google.com/view/pendle-finance/pendle>Pendle</a>

    A dangerous encounter with a territorial bison and the subsequent viral video were not what Rebecca Clark had in mind when she set out for Caprock Canyons State Park in early October 2022.

    She had been so enamored with Texas’ third-largest state park on her first solo hiking and camping trip there a year earlier that she decided to go back for more. Roughly two hours by car from either Lubbock or the Panhandle city of Amarillo, Caprock attracts visitors with big blue skies, brown and green prairielands and rugged red-rock formations.

    Caprock has another draw – its wild bison herd, about 350 strong in late 2022. But bison, the great symbolic animal of the Great Plains, weren’t on her radar. Until suddenly, they were.

    The Texas resident recounted her experience with CNN’s Ed Lavandera, telling him that she came upon a herd while she was walking a trail back from Lake Theo.

    “I decided to just kind of wait for them to … get across the trail, and then I would pass them.” But they weren’t moving away fast enough for Clark. She said she decided to just walk by them – closer than the recommended safety distance. She was recording the moment on her smartphone.

    In her video, Clark can be heard saying, “Thank you, I appreciate it” as she passes the animals.

    Things got dangerous very quickly when one of the agitated bison took notice. “When I saw him turn, it’s like instantly I knew he was gonna come after me.”

    And that’s exactly what the bison did. Once it charged, the large mammal was upon Clark within two seconds despite her frantic attempt to flee.

    “It was so fast. He hit me in the back, rammed me, hooked me, then flipped me up and face forward into the mesquite bush.”

    And there was Clark. Gored, bleeding and alone. How would she survive?

    2024年12月9日
  • AnthonyGek

    How to survive a bear attack – or better yet, avoid one altogether
    <a href=https://sites.google.com/view/uniswap-exchange/uniswap-exchange>Uniswap</a>

    You’re out for a hike, reveling in glorious nature. Suddenly, you spot a bear. And the bear has spotted you, too. Would you know what to do next?

    Beth Pratt sure would.

    She was once on the Old Gardiner Road Trail in Yellowstone National Park, enjoying her run in wild nature. Her reverie came to an end when she came upon a grizzly bear eating flowers.

    “I stopped. It stood on its hind legs and looked at me. I knew that wasn’t a threatening gesture,” she told CNN Travel. “I’m not kidding, it waved its paw at me as if to say, ‘just go on your way,’ and went back to eating.”

    “And I walked slowly away and put some distance between us, and the encounter ended fine.”

    When it comes to dealing with bears, Pratt does have a thing or two on almost all the rest of us, though.

    She is the California regional executive director for the National Wildlife Federation, a job she’s had for more than 10 years. She worked in Yellowstone for several years – and once saw nine grizzlies in one day there.
    Finally, she lives on the border of Yosemite National Park, and bears will pass through her yard, including this one seen in the footage above in late September 2021.

    You can hear the enthusiasm in Pratt’s voice as she shares her bear bona fides and advice to make sure bear/human encounters are delightful, not dangerous.

    “A wild bear is a beautiful sight to see. It’s incredible to see them in the wild. I never had a bad experience with bears. What I try to get people to feel is respect, not fear, for bears. The animal usually wants to avoid the encounters.”

    2024年12月9日
  • Rickeycem

    Medical staff on the front line of the battle against mpox in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have told the BBC they are desperate for vaccines to arrive so they can stem the rate of new infections.
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    At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
    Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
    “You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
    “The only support we have already had is a little medicine for the patients and water. As far as other challenges are concerned, there's still no staff motivation.”

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    2024年12月10日
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    At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
    Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
    “You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
    “The only support we have already had is a little medicine for the patients and water. As far as other challenges are concerned, there's still no staff motivation.”

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    2024年12月10日
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    Medical staff on the front line of the battle against mpox in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have told the BBC they are desperate for vaccines to arrive so they can stem the rate of new infections.
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    At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
    Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
    “You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
    “The only support we have already had is a little medicine for the patients and water. As far as other challenges are concerned, there's still no staff motivation.”

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    2024年12月10日
  • JamesTroni

    They fell in love three decades ago. Now they pilot planes together
    <a href=https://sites.google.com/view/aave-protocol/aave>Aave</a>

    On their first flight together, Joel Atkinson and Shelley Atkinson couldn’t contain their excitement. They enthused to the flight attendants. They posed for photos. They told passengers via a pre-flight announcement.

    “We made a big deal about it,” Joel tells CNN Travel.

    Then, right before take off, Joel and Shelley sat side by side in the flight deck, just the two of them. They’d come full circle, and were about to embark on an exciting new chapter.

    “It felt amazing,” Shelley tells CNN Travel.

    “As we prepared to take off, I was giddy, euphoric,” says Joel.

    Joel and Shelley met as twentysomethings flying jets in the US Air Force. They became fast friends, then, over time, fell in love.

    Today, they’ve been married for 27 years and counting. They’ve brought up two kids together. And now they’re both pilots for Southwest Airlines. They regularly fly together, with Joel as captain and Shelley as first officer.

    The couple say working together is “amazing.” They treat layovers as “date nights.” They learn from one another’s respective “wisdom and judgment.”

    And no, they don’t argue mid-flight.

    “People ask us, how does it work, flying together?” says Joel. “We know a few pilot couples and some of them fly together, some of them don’t. I’ve heard people say, ‘Oh I could never fly with my wife or my husband.’”

    For Joel and Shelley, working together is seamless – a joy that comes easily to them both.

    “We’re best friends,” says Shelley.

    “There’s just that unspoken bond,” says Joel.

    2024年12月10日
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    2024年12月10日
  • FrankSah

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    2024年12月10日